The Commodity Outlook

As the global mining industry looks ahead to PDAC 2026, one thing is clear: the familiar narratives used to explain commodity demand and pricing no longer hold. For decades, commodity outlooks could be summarized through relatively simple lenses—Chinese industrial growth, global GDP expansion, or short-term supply disruptions. Today, those explanations feel increasingly incomplete.

Demand is no longer driven by a single growth engine. Pricing is no longer purely cyclical. And capital is no longer flowing broadly across commodities in anticipation of the “next upcycle.” Instead, capital is becoming more selective, more concentrated, and far more sensitive to risk—particularly execution risk.

These shifts are shaping the conversations happening across the industry, including those set to take center stage at PDAC 2026. Understanding what is driving demand and pricing currently—and how these forces influence capital flows—is essential for project owners, developers, and investors alike.

The End of Simple Commodity Cycles

The traditional commodity cycle framework assumed relatively synchronized global growth, predictable supply responses, and broadly diversified capital allocation. In that environment, investors could gain exposure to commodities as a class, confident that rising prices would lift most assets.

That world is gone.

Today’s commodity markets are being reshaped by structural forces that operate on different timelines, affect different materials unevenly, and introduce new layers of geopolitical and execution risk. The result is a market in which two projects producing the same commodity can face vastly different capital outcomes, based not only on grade or scale but also on jurisdiction, infrastructure, timeline, and credibility.

This shift is driving much of the discussion around commodity outlooks heading into PDAC 2026—not just what demand exists, but how durable it is and who can realistically supply it.

Energy Transition Demand: Real, Uneven, and Capital Intensive

The energy transition remains one of the most powerful long-term demand drivers in the commodity space. Electrification, decarbonization, and renewable energy deployment all require large volumes of metals and materials, particularly copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, and aluminum.

However, the key issue is not whether demand exists—it clearly does—but how unevenly that demand translates into investable opportunities.

Policy ambition has outpaced physical supply capacity. New mines take years, often decades, to permit, finance, and build. Infrastructure constraints, water availability, community expectations, and environmental scrutiny further limit the rate at which supply can respond.

As a result, capital is not flowing indiscriminately into “energy transition commodities.” Instead, it is flowing toward projects that can realistically deliver supply within the timelines demanded by markets and governments. Brownfield expansions, projects in established jurisdictions, and assets with clear execution pathways are being favored over early-stage or jurisdictionally complex developments.

This selectivity—and the consequences for project advancement—will be a recurring theme in commodity discussions at PDAC 2026.

AI, Data Centres, and Power Infrastructure: The Quiet Demand Engine

While energy transition narratives dominate headlines, a quieter but equally powerful demand driver is emerging: the rapid expansion of digital infrastructure.

Artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and data-intensive technologies are driving unprecedented growth in data centres and the power systems that support them. These facilities are extraordinarily resource-intensive, requiring vast amounts of copper, aluminum, steel, cement, and reliable energy inputs.

Unlike some policy-driven demand signals, this demand is being pulled directly by private capital, corporate investment, and technological competition. Data centres must be built, grids must be expanded, and energy systems must be reinforced—often faster than existing infrastructure allows.

This creates a distinct class of commodity demand: long-dated, capital-heavy, and relatively insensitive to short-term price volatility. For mining companies and investors, this underscores the importance of understanding who the end user is and how demand is financed, not merely headline consumption forecasts.

Geopolitics and Supply Risk Are Now Priced In

Another defining feature of today’s commodity outlook is the explicit pricing of geopolitical and supply-chain risk.

Resource nationalism, export controls, trade restrictions, and geopolitical tensions have fundamentally changed how buyers and investors evaluate supply. Secure access to materials now commands a premium, whereas exposure to politically volatile regions incurs a measurable discount.

This is particularly evident in the case of critical and strategic minerals, where governments are increasingly intervening to secure domestic or allied supply chains. Jurisdictional stability, regulatory clarity, and social license are no longer secondary considerations—they directly influence project valuations and financing terms.

As PDAC 2026 approaches, these issues are expected to feature prominently in discussions around global supply security and the strategic positioning of mining assets.

What This Means for Capital Flows

The combined effect of these forces—energy transition demand, digital infrastructure growth, and geopolitical risk—is a fundamental reshaping of capital allocation.

Capital is no longer chasing optionality. It is chasing deliverability.

Investors are prioritizing projects that can demonstrate realistic schedules, credible cost estimates, and robust execution strategies. Greenfield projects with long timelines face higher hurdles, while assets that can deliver near- to mid-term supply are attracting disproportionate attention.

Importantly, this does not mean capital is scarce. It means capital is conditional. Projects that cannot clearly articulate how they navigate permitting, infrastructure, community engagement, and execution risk are increasingly sidelined, regardless of commodity exposure.

Implications for Project Owners and Developers

For project owners and developers, the current commodity outlook conveys a clear message: macroeconomic tailwinds alone are insufficient. Understanding demand drivers is essential, but positioning a project to attract capital requires more than alignment with thematic narratives. It requires disciplined studies, realistic assumptions, and execution strategies that acknowledge—not minimize—risk.

As conversations at PDAC 2026 will likely reinforce, credibility has become a differentiator. Projects that demonstrate a deep understanding of their operating context and a clear path to delivery stand apart in a crowded field of opportunities.

Capital Is Selective—and Unforgiving

The current commodity environment rewards clarity, realism, and discipline in execution. Demand drivers are strong, but they are not universal. Pricing signals are nuanced rather than cyclical. And capital is flowing with intent, not enthusiasm.

For industry participants heading into PDAC 2026, the challenge is not predicting demand, but aligning projects with the realities of today’s capital markets.