Why Shutdowns Fail

By Kenny MacEwen

Shutdowns are unavoidable in heavy industry. Whether it’s a planned maintenance outage, a capital upgrade, or a complete turnaround, shutdowns are a critical part of operational continuity. But despite their frequency and importance, shutdowns often fail to meet their intended targets. In fact, according to industry data, over 50% of large-scale shutdowns in the mining and infrastructure sectors exceed their planned timelines by more than 15%, and nearly a third exceed their budgets by 20% or more.

So why do shutdowns fail? The answer isn’t usually a lack of effort or investment. Instead, failure stems from a handful of recurring issues—each of which is preventable with the right strategy and team structure. These lessons from the field are hard-won and costly, but they offer invaluable insight for organizations aiming to execute shutdowns without derailing their bottom line.

Lesson 1: Lack of Scope Control is the Fastest Path to Failure

Scope creep is one of the most common and corrosive threats to shutdown success. It often starts innocently: someone identifies an “extra” task that seems small, manageable, and beneficial. But as more of these get added, the shutdown begins to buckle under the weight of unplanned work. A study by the Construction Industry Institute found that late-stage scope changes cause up to 60% of turnaround delays.

The core issue lies in the failure to establish a clear scope early and enforce it. Without strict scope management protocols, teams are often left to react rather than execute. Work packages change, procurement lags, and scheduling assumptions collapse.

Field data from a 2023 mining turnaround in Western Canada revealed that just five scope additions—each costing under $50,000—resulted in over $1.2 million in lost productivity and delay penalties. The culprit wasn’t the individual tasks but the compounded effect of needing to re-sequence work, wait for materials, and reassign already stretched crews.

Takeaway: Scope must be locked down early and protected with a change control process that evaluates new requests against impact to cost, schedule, and safety.

Lesson 2: Poor Contractor Integration Breaks Productivity on Day One

In most shutdowns, contractors represent the majority of the active workforce, sometimes accounting for as much as 70%. Yet in many failed projects, these teams arrive at confusion, unclear directives, and missing materials. This isn’t a contractor issue; it’s a leadership and coordination failure.

One of the most frequently cited frustrations among contractor supervisors is the lack of onboarding and real-time communication. When they don’t understand site protocols, reporting structures, or who is in charge of decision-making, productivity plummets. In some reported cases, new crews sat idle for an entire shift waiting for access credentials or material clearance.

This lack of integration creates a fragmented execution environment, where each contractor operates in a silo. There’s no shared goal, no unified rhythm, and no accountability to a central plan.

At a central Australian iron ore facility in 2022, over 12,000 cumulative labor hours were lost in the first week of a $140M turnaround because workfronts weren’t ready and materials weren’t staged. The root cause? No contractor kickoff or coordinated readiness review was conducted.

Takeaway: Contractors must be treated as partners, not vendors. Early engagement, joint planning sessions, and defined integration protocols are essential.

Lesson 3: Unrealistic Schedules Set Projects Up to Fail

Many shutdowns look good on paper. They feature detailed Gantt charts, resource plans, and milestone targets. However, these schedules often fail to reflect the complex realities of execution accurately. They assume best-case productivity, ignore weather risks, underestimate congestion in work areas, and assume perfect material delivery.

This leads to overly optimistic schedules that collapse at the first sign of trouble. A delay on one work front quickly cascades across the shutdown because there’s no float, no contingency, and no recovery strategy.

One mining operation in South America developed a turnaround schedule that assumed 100% wrench time across three shifts. Within three days, congestion, safety stand-downs, and materials delays had reduced effective productivity to under 40%. The shutdown lasted 11 days longer than expected, resulting in a whole month of missed production targets.

Takeaway: Build schedules around real-world productivity data, not optimistic assumptions. Include buffers, alternate execution paths, and recovery windows.

Lesson 4: Lack of Communication = Loss of Control

Communication failures are a universal feature of shutdowns that fall short of expectations. This often includes unclear responsibilities, slow issue escalation, or mismatches between field conditions and the project plan. Information either doesn’t move fast enough, or it’s distorted as it moves up and down the chain.

In one documented refinery shutdown, a failed pump was discovered by a field tech early in the turnaround. However, due to unclear reporting lines and a culture of deference to hierarchy, the issue was not escalated for 18 hours. The result? A critical path task missed its window, and the whole project slipped.

Daily toolbox talks, centralized reporting dashboards, and field-level supervisors with real-time decision-making authority are not optional—they’re foundational to maintaining control under pressure.

Takeaway: Establish communication protocols and escalation chains before the shutdown starts. Make it easy for people to report issues without fear of blame.

Lesson 5: No Defined Owner’s Role Leads to Micromanagement or Abdication

The final lesson is about leadership. In failed shutdowns, owner teams are either too involved—micromanaging contractors and field crews—or completely detached, assuming the project team will “figure it out.”

Both extremes are damaging. When owners try to control every detail, they slow down execution and undermine authority on the ground. When they disappear, critical issues go unaddressed, and there’s no one to make strategic calls.

During a successful mining shutdown in 2021, the owner’s project lead maintained a clear presence, conducted daily decision reviews, and empowered technical leads to take action. The result was a 17-day, $36M turnaround completed two days early and 3% under budget.

Takeaway: Owner teams must strike a balance—leading strategically, staying visible, and enabling fast decision-making without disrupting operations.

Turning Lessons into Action

Shutdowns will always carry risk, but failure is not inevitable. The most successful projects are those that apply discipline across planning, integration, scheduling, and leadership. They recognize that what happens before the shutdown is just as important as what happens during the shutdown.

Data from turnaround benchmarks show that organizations that invest in structured pre-shutdown planning achieve:

• 15–30% fewer safety incidents
• 10–20% lower cost variance
• 20–40% faster recovery times post-shutdown

Those gains aren’t just theoretical—they’re repeatable when the right systems and people are in place.

How TMG Helps Prevent Shutdown Failure

At TMG, we specialize in helping owners execute shutdowns that not only meet targets but also enhance operational readiness going forward. We work alongside your internal teams to bring clarity to scope, realism to scheduling, and cohesion to contractor execution. Our owner’s team services are designed to help you prevent the very issues outlined above.

Whether you’re managing a minor plant outage or a multi-site infrastructure shutdown, TMG’s experience ensures your project is scoped, staffed, and sequenced for success. Our track record includes mining, energy, and industrial clients who have turned lessons from the field into playbooks for repeatable performance.